Responding to the AIDS epidemic in Angola
نویسنده
چکیده
South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch, South Africa Correspondence to [email protected] Summary The epidemic of HIV in Angola started later and stabilized at lower levels than in most countries in southern Africa. Some studies suggest that certain high risk groups account for a substantial part of the total number of infections. With a relatively small population and a relatively high gross domestic product, Angola is in a good position to intervene decisively to control HIV. The effectiveness, availability and affordability of potent anti-retroviral therapy (ART) make it possible to contemplate ending the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Angola. In this paper we consider what would have happened without ART, the No ART counterfactual, the impact on the epidemic if the current roll-out of ART is maintained, the ‘Current Programme’, the impact if coverage is rapidly increased to reach 90% of people with CD4+ cell counts below 350/μL by 2015 and HIV-positive pregnant women are all offered ART for life (‘Option B+’), the ‘Accelerated Programme’, and what might be possible under the 2013 guidelines from the World Health Organization, starting in 2015 and reaching full coverage of ART by 2018, the Expanded Programme.
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